Navigational Risk Assessment Case Studies

Challenge faced by the client

ABL proposed to undertake a comprehensive feasibility and risk assessment study to evaluate the safe manoeuvring of Newcastle max vessels at a terminal. 

Purpose of the NRA

The terminal wishes to add Newcastle max vessels to its port. ABL are conducting an assessment to ensure this can be done safely. 

ABL’s role

• For this assessment, ABL will conduct a Simplified IALA Risk Assessment (SIRA) for the study area, focused on hazards that may impact the feasibility of Newcastle max vessels entering the terminal.
• We will also conduct a navigational simulation of the berthing/unberthing manoeuvre for additional details of the limits. 

Challenge faced by the client

To ensure navigational risk is kept to a manageable level, a European Ministry wanted to assess the risk posed by new OWF development sites. 

Purpose of the NRA

The purpose of these OWF NRAs is to assess the impact of each OWF site on the navigational risk profile.  

ABL’s role

• Conducted risk analyses for offshore wind farm sites using AIS traffic data, forecasts, and metocean conditions to assess allision risk.  
• Assessed results against regulatory safety criteria and existing and potential mitigation measures.  
• Assessed the impact on shipping and developed recommendations to ensure safe navigation while supporting offshore projects. 

Project outcome

Clear, quantifiable results showing how each site affects the likelihood of collisions, allisions, and groundings. Assessment of which risk control measures may be required to mitigate the increase in risk to a manageable level or to ALARP. 

Challenge faced by the client

The objective of this initiative is to perform an extensive review and evaluation of the Marine Department’s operations, structure, and efficiency to enhance operational effectiveness, align with international standards and optimise resource utilisation, thereby strengthening the position of the port, located in the Middle East, as a leading maritime hub. 

Purpose of the NRA

To conduct a comprehensive review of operations, governance, pilotage, towage, mooring, VTS, and manpower.  

ABL’s role

• Performed quantitative AIS and fleet-performance analytics supported by qualitative interviews and policy review.  

Project outcome

We developed 171 recommendations consolidated into 60 priority actions and delivered a roadmap, KPIs, and best-practice guidance for long-term capability building. 

Challenge faced by the client

A UK LNG terminal employed a 3^rd party to run their 5-tug service from pilotage point to berth for all their LNG Carriers. There were frequent delays and a high cost. 

Purpose of the NRA

To assess the current tug services at the UK LNG terminal and recommend changes to increase operational efficiency. 

ABL’s role

• Conduct an independent, evidence‑based assessment of the terminal’s towage service. This included reviewing operational data, contracts, fleet performance, AIS data analysis, utilisation calculations, historical design studies, and safety governance frameworks.
• ABL evaluated whether the current five‑tug configuration remains appropriate, identified opportunities for improved efficiency, transparency and outlined the risk‑assessment requirements under the PMSC and provided strategic recommendations on governance, digitalisation, market engagement, and long‑term resilience.   

Project outcome

• The terminal’s towage service is safe and reliable but constrained by limited cost transparency and a fixed‑availability commercial model. Evidence suggests a four‑tug core fleet could meet routine needs, but only if validated through a formal harbour‑wide navigational risk assessment.
• Strengthening data‑driven governance, clearer KPIs, and improved digital performance monitoring were identified as key enablers of efficiency.
• Market testing and enhanced sustainability considerations also support a more transparent, resilient, and future‑ready towage strategy. 

Challenge faced by the client

With the large number of OWFs set to be constructed in the German EEZ before 2045, a review of current ETVs and how they will need to change was needed. 

Purpose of the NRA

The coverage of OWFs in the German EEZ by 2045 will impact current traffic patterns. Ensuring safe navigation while supporting renewable energy is essential. 

ABL’s role

• ABL reviewed the current ETVs (positions, vessel specifications), the current risk profile, how future developments may affect the navigational risk profile (OWF development, traffic volume changes), modelled the risk profile for the current and future, and made recommendations for the pathway to reconcile these risks through the addition of ETVs, repositioning of existing ETVs, and other risk control measures (AtoN, VTS etc.)

Project outcome

Clear government roadmap from 2025 to 2045 to ensure safe navigation across legal, technical, and operational domains. 

Challenge faced by the client

At a port in the Middle East, there was an identified need to modernise and standardise pilotage operations to harmonise fragmented management structure, inconsistent authorisation standards, and heavy reliance on on‑the‑job training (OJT) and to align their existing safety assessments with relevant best practice. Rising vessel traffic is creating increasing operational and manpower pressure. 

Purpose of the NRA

• Assess pilot manpower, competency standards, rostering efficiency, and long‑term demand to 2044.  
• Benchmark the port against IMO A.960, ISPO, and UK PMSC best practice.  
• Analyse AIS‑derived traffic patterns, berth utilisation, and pilot boat fuel/emissions performance.  
• Identify opportunities for safer, more efficient and more sustainable pilotage operations. 

ABL’s role

• Processed 72 million AIS messages; mapped berth and CALM buoy utilisation; built pilot boat layby/in‑use models.  
• Forecasted pilotage demand to 2044 using 3% CAGR and analysed resilience of the current staffing model.  
• Conducted ISPO audit (65 conforms; 10 OFIs; 18 non‑conformities) and benchmarking across GCC peers.  
• Modelled shift optimisation, simultaneity (SIMOPS), and potential for dynamic scheduling and digital twin tools.  
• Performed full environmental model: fuel curves, emissions baseline, speed‑limit scenario, SIMOPS savings, hybrid‑boat feasibility.  

Project outcome

Delivered 91 recommendations consolidated into 47 strategic actions across risk, sustainability, competence, shift management, and technology. 

Challenge faced by the client

To understand how North Sea shipping will evolve to 2050 amid OWF expansion, climate impacts, and shifting regulations. There had been a lack of integrated, spatially explicit modelling linking OWF lifecycles, fishing redistribution, climate change, and commercial trends in vessel movements.  

Purpose of the NRA

Produce a defensible, data‑driven 2022–2050 forecast of shipping activity across the OSPAR II region that quantifies how changes across OWFs, environmental protections, climate drivers and fisheries will alter vessel density and routing.  

ABL’s role

• Processed full‑year (2022) EMSA AIS dataset and built baseline vessel‑density maps.  
• Built adjustment factors for environmental, climate, windfarm, fishing, and commercial drivers and applied them in six forecast epochs to 2050.  
• Delivered micro‑scale case studies for 3 specific OWF sites: Nordsee Cluster, Hollandse Kust Zuid, Saint‑Brieuc.  
• Created the CAE (Claims–Arguments–Evidence) framework to document all analytical assumptions. 

Project outcome

• Delivered the first integrated North Sea shipping forecast to 2050 incorporating OWF growth, climate impacts, fisheries change, and regulations.  
• Produced spatial density maps for all vessel classes across six epochs.  
• Identified future navigational pinch points, OWF‑driven traffic corridors, and areas of increasing/decreasing support‑vessel density.