{"id":126167,"date":"2026-03-23T16:37:32","date_gmt":"2026-03-23T16:37:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/abl-group.com\/abl\/?post_type=case-study&#038;p=126167"},"modified":"2026-03-23T16:38:25","modified_gmt":"2026-03-23T16:38:25","slug":"navigational-risk-assessment-case-studies","status":"publish","type":"case-study","link":"https:\/\/abl-group.com\/abl\/case-studies\/navigational-risk-assessment-case-studies\/","title":{"rendered":"Navigational Risk Assessment Case Studies"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<div class=\"wp-block-cover alignfull has-parallax\" style=\"min-height:153px;aspect-ratio:unset;\"><div class=\"wp-block-cover__image-background wp-image-126108 size-large has-parallax\" style=\"background-position:50% 50%;background-image:url(https:\/\/abl-group.com\/abl\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/AdobeStock_280579738-1024x576.jpeg)\"><\/div><span aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-cover__background has-blue-background-color has-background-dim-70 has-background-dim\"><\/span><div class=\"wp-block-cover__inner-container is-layout-constrained wp-block-cover-is-layout-constrained\">\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-1-managing-change\">1. Managing Change<\/h2>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-challenge-faced-by-the-client\">Challenge faced by the client <\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>ABL proposed to undertake a comprehensive feasibility and risk assessment study to evaluate the safe manoeuvring of Newcastle\u00a0max vessels at\u00a0a\u00a0terminal.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-purpose-of-the-nra\">Purpose of the NRA <\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>The terminal\u00a0wishes\u00a0to add Newcastle\u00a0max vessels to its port. ABL are conducting an assessment to ensure this can be done safely.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-abl-s-role\">ABL&#8217;s role<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>For this assessment, ABL will conduct a Simplified IALA Risk Assessment (SIRA)\u00a0for\u00a0the study area, focused on hazards that\u00a0may\u00a0impact\u00a0the feasibility of Newcastle\u00a0max vessels entering\u00a0the terminal. <\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>We will also conduct a navigational simulation of the berthing\/unberthing manoeuvre for\u00a0additional\u00a0details of the limits.\u00a0<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-cover alignfull has-parallax\" style=\"min-height:153px;aspect-ratio:unset;\"><div class=\"wp-block-cover__image-background wp-image-121815 size-large has-parallax\" style=\"background-position:50% 50%;background-image:url(https:\/\/abl-group.com\/abl\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/Offshore-Wind-Rough-Sea-AdobeStock_901487377-1024x574.jpg)\"><\/div><span aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-cover__background has-blue-background-color has-background-dim-70 has-background-dim\"><\/span><div class=\"wp-block-cover__inner-container is-layout-constrained wp-block-cover-is-layout-constrained\">\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-2-supporting-development-amp-planning\">2. Supporting Development &amp; Planning\u00a0<\/h2>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-challenge-faced-by-the-client-0\">Challenge faced by the client <\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>To ensure navigational risk is kept to a manageable level,\u00a0a European Ministry\u00a0wanted to assess the risk posed by new OWF development sites.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-purpose-of-the-nra-0\">Purpose of the NRA <\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>The purpose of these OWF NRAs is to assess the impact of\u00a0each\u00a0OWF site on the navigational risk profile.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-abl-s-role-0\">ABL&#8217;s role<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Conducted risk analyses for offshore wind farm sites using AIS traffic data, forecasts, and metocean conditions to assess allision risk.\u00a0\u00a0<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Assessed results&nbsp;against&nbsp;regulatory safety criteria and&nbsp;existing and potential&nbsp;mitigation measures.&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Assessed the impact on shipping and\u00a0developed recommendations to\u00a0ensure safe navigation while supporting offshore projects.\u00a0<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-project-outcome\">Project outcome<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Clear, quantifiable results<\/strong>\u00a0showing how each\u00a0site\u00a0affects\u00a0the likelihood of collisions, allisions, and groundings. Assessment of\u00a0which\u00a0risk control measures\u00a0may\u00a0be\u00a0required\u00a0to mitigate the increase in risk to a manageable level or\u00a0to\u00a0ALARP.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-cover alignfull has-parallax\" style=\"min-height:153px;aspect-ratio:unset;\"><div class=\"wp-block-cover__image-background wp-image-126107 size-large has-parallax\" style=\"background-position:50% 50%;background-image:url(https:\/\/abl-group.com\/abl\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/AdobeStock_294426192-1024x407.jpeg)\"><\/div><span aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-cover__background has-blue-background-color has-background-dim-70 has-background-dim\"><\/span><div class=\"wp-block-cover__inner-container is-layout-constrained wp-block-cover-is-layout-constrained\">\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-3-responding-to-risk-signals\">3. Responding to Risk Signals\u00a0\u00a0<\/h2>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-challenge-faced-by-the-client-1\">Challenge faced by the client<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>The objective of this initiative is to perform an extensive review and evaluation of the Marine Department\u2019s operations, structure, and efficiency to enhance operational effectiveness, align with international standards and optimise resource utilisation, thereby strengthening\u00a0the\u00a0position\u00a0of the port, located in the Middle East,\u00a0as a leading maritime hub.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-purpose-of-the-nra-1\">Purpose of the NRA <\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>To conduct a comprehensive review of operations, governance, pilotage, towage, mooring, VTS, and\u00a0manpower.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-abl-s-role-1\">ABL&#8217;s role<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Performed quantitative AIS and fleet-performance analytics supported by qualitative interviews and policy review.\u00a0\u00a0<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-project-outcome-0\">Project outcome<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>We developed 171 recommendations\u00a0consolidated\u00a0into 60 priority actions and delivered a roadmap, KPIs, and best-practice guidance for long-term capability building.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-cover alignfull has-parallax\" style=\"min-height:153px;aspect-ratio:unset;\"><div class=\"wp-block-cover__image-background wp-image-29450 size-full has-parallax\" style=\"background-position:50% 50%;background-image:url(https:\/\/abl-group.com\/abl\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/06\/LNG-Tanker-scaled.jpg)\"><\/div><span aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-cover__background has-blue-background-color has-background-dim-70 has-background-dim\"><\/span><div class=\"wp-block-cover__inner-container is-layout-constrained wp-block-cover-is-layout-constrained\">\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-4-regulatory-amp-assurance-needs\">4. Regulatory &amp; Assurance Needs\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/h2>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-challenge-faced-by-the-client-2\">Challenge faced by the client<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>A UK LNG terminal\u00a0employed\u00a0a 3<sup>rd<\/sup>\u00a0party\u00a0to run their 5-tug service from pilotage point to berth\u00a0for\u00a0all their LNG Carriers. There were frequent delays and\u00a0a high cost.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-purpose-of-the-nra-2\">Purpose of the NRA <\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>To assess the current tug services at\u00a0the UK LNG terminal\u00a0and recommend changes to increase operational efficiency.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-abl-s-role-2\">ABL&#8217;s role<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Conduct an independent, evidence\u2011based assessment of\u00a0the terminal\u2019s\u00a0towage service. This included reviewing operational data, contracts, fleet performance, AIS data analysis, utilisation calculations, historical design studies, and safety governance frameworks. <\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>ABL evaluated whether the current five\u2011tug configuration\u00a0remains\u00a0appropriate,\u00a0identified\u00a0opportunities for improved efficiency,\u00a0transparency\u00a0and\u00a0outlined the risk\u2011assessment requirements under the PMSC and provided strategic recommendations on governance, digitalisation, market engagement, and long\u2011term resilience.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-project-outcome-1\">Project outcome<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The terminal\u2019s\u00a0towage service is safe and reliable but constrained by limited cost transparency and a fixed\u2011availability commercial model. Evidence suggests a four\u2011tug core fleet could meet routine needs, but only if\u00a0validated\u00a0through a formal harbour\u2011wide navigational risk assessment. <\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Strengthening data\u2011driven governance, clearer KPIs, and improved digital performance monitoring were identified as key enablers of efficiency. <\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Market testing and enhanced sustainability considerations\u00a0also\u00a0support a more transparent, resilient, and future\u2011ready towage strategy.\u00a0<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-cover alignfull has-parallax\" style=\"min-height:153px;aspect-ratio:unset;\"><div class=\"wp-block-cover__image-background wp-image-125413 size-full has-parallax\" style=\"background-position:50% 50%;background-image:url(https:\/\/abl-group.com\/abl\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/Offshore-wind.jpeg)\"><\/div><span aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-cover__background has-blue-background-color has-background-dim-70 has-background-dim\"><\/span><div class=\"wp-block-cover__inner-container is-layout-constrained wp-block-cover-is-layout-constrained\">\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-5-emergency-response-amp-resilience\">5. Emergency Response &amp; Resilience\u00a0\u00a0<\/h2>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-challenge-faced-by-the-client-3\">Challenge faced by the client<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>With the\u00a0large number\u00a0of OWFs set to be constructed in the German EEZ before 2045, a review of current ETVs and how they will need to change was needed.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-purpose-of-the-nra-3\">Purpose of the NRA <\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>The coverage of OWFs in the German EEZ by 2045 will\u00a0impact\u00a0current traffic patterns. Ensuring safe navigation while supporting renewable energy is\u00a0essential.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-abl-s-role-3\">ABL&#8217;s role<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>ABL reviewed the current ETVs (positions, vessel specifications), the current risk profile,\u00a0how\u00a0future\u00a0developments may affect\u00a0the navigational risk profile (OWF development, traffic volume changes), modelled the risk profile\u00a0for\u00a0the current and future, and made recommendations\u00a0for\u00a0the pathway to reconcile these risks through the addition of ETVs, repositioning of existing ETVs, and other risk control measures (AtoN, VTS etc.)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-project-outcome-2\">Project outcome<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Clear government roadmap from 2025 to 2045 to ensure safe navigation across legal, technical, and operational\u00a0domains.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-cover alignfull has-parallax\" style=\"min-height:153px;aspect-ratio:unset;\"><div class=\"wp-block-cover__image-background wp-image-122442 size-full has-parallax\" style=\"background-position:50% 50%;background-image:url(https:\/\/abl-group.com\/abl\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/Port-1.jpg)\"><\/div><span aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-cover__background has-blue-background-color has-background-dim-70 has-background-dim\"><\/span><div class=\"wp-block-cover__inner-container is-layout-constrained wp-block-cover-is-layout-constrained\">\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-6-improving-operational-performance\">6. Improving Operational Performance\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/h2>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-challenge-faced-by-the-client-4\">Challenge faced by the client<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>At a port in the Middle East, there was an identified need to modernise and standardise pilotage operations to harmonise fragmented management structure, inconsistent authorisation standards, and heavy reliance on on\u2011the\u2011job training (OJT) and\u00a0to\u00a0align their\u00a0existing\u00a0safety assessments\u00a0with\u00a0relevant best\u00a0practice.\u00a0Rising vessel traffic\u00a0is\u00a0creating\u00a0increasing operational and\u00a0manpower\u00a0pressure.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-purpose-of-the-nra-4\">Purpose of the NRA <\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Assess pilot\u00a0manpower, competency standards, rostering efficiency, and long\u2011term demand to 2044.\u00a0\u00a0<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Benchmark&nbsp;the port&nbsp;against IMO A.960, ISPO, and UK PMSC best practice.&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Analyse AIS\u2011derived traffic patterns, berth utilisation, and pilot boat fuel\/emissions performance.&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Identify\u00a0opportunities for safer, more\u00a0efficient\u00a0and\u00a0more sustainable pilotage operations.\u00a0<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-abl-s-role-4\">ABL&#8217;s role<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Processed 72 million AIS messages; mapped berth and CALM buoy utilisation; built pilot boat layby\/in\u2011use models.\u00a0\u00a0<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Forecasted\u00a0pilotage demand to 2044 using 3% CAGR and analysed resilience of\u00a0the current\u00a0staffing model.\u00a0\u00a0<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Conducted ISPO audit (65 conforms; 10 OFIs; 18 non\u2011conformities) and benchmarking across GCC peers.\u00a0\u00a0<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Modelled shift optimisation, simultaneity (SIMOPS), and potential for dynamic scheduling\u00a0and\u00a0digital twin tools.\u00a0\u00a0<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Performed full environmental model: fuel curves, emissions baseline, speed\u2011limit scenario, SIMOPS savings, hybrid\u2011boat feasibility.\u00a0\u00a0<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-project-outcome-3\">Project outcome<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Delivered 91 recommendations\u00a0consolidated\u00a0into 47 strategic actions across risk, sustainability, competence, shift management, and technology.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-cover alignfull has-parallax\" style=\"min-height:153px;aspect-ratio:unset;\"><div class=\"wp-block-cover__image-background wp-image-33672 size-full has-parallax\" style=\"background-position:50% 50%;background-image:url(https:\/\/abl-group.com\/abl\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/wind-6533777_1920.jpg)\"><\/div><span aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-cover__background has-blue-background-color has-background-dim-70 has-background-dim\"><\/span><div class=\"wp-block-cover__inner-container is-layout-constrained wp-block-cover-is-layout-constrained\">\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-7-looking-ahead\">7. Looking Ahead\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/h2>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-challenge-faced-by-the-client-5\">Challenge faced by the client<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>To understand how North Sea shipping will evolve to 2050 amid OWF expansion, climate impacts, and shifting regulations.\u00a0There\u00a0had been\u00a0a lack\u00a0of integrated, spatially explicit modelling linking OWF lifecycles, fishing redistribution, climate change,\u00a0and commercial trends\u00a0in\u00a0vessel movements.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-purpose-of-the-nra-5\">Purpose of the NRA <\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Produce a defensible, data\u2011driven 2022\u20132050 forecast of shipping activity across the OSPAR II region\u00a0that quantifies\u00a0how\u00a0changes\u00a0across\u00a0OWFs, environmental protections, climate drivers and fisheries will alter vessel density and routing.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-abl-s-role-5\">ABL&#8217;s role<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Processed full\u2011year (2022) EMSA AIS dataset and built baseline vessel\u2011density maps.\u00a0\u00a0<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Built adjustment factors for environmental, climate, windfarm, fishing, and commercial drivers\u00a0and\u00a0applied\u00a0them\u00a0in\u00a0six forecast epochs to 2050.\u00a0\u00a0<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Delivered micro\u2011scale case studies\u00a0for\u00a03 specific OWF sites:\u00a0Nordsee\u00a0Cluster, Hollandse Kust Zuid, Saint\u2011Brieuc.\u00a0\u00a0<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Created the CAE (Claims\u2013Arguments\u2013Evidence) framework to document all analytical assumptions.\u00a0<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-project-outcome-4\">Project outcome<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Delivered the first integrated North Sea shipping forecast to 2050 incorporating OWF growth, climate impacts, fisheries change, and regulations.\u00a0\u00a0<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Produced spatial density maps for all vessel classes across six epochs.&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Identified\u00a0future navigational pinch points, OWF\u2011driven traffic corridors, and areas of increasing\/decreasing support\u2011vessel density.\u00a0<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:49px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-cover alignfull\" style=\"min-height:171px;aspect-ratio:unset;\"><span aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-cover__background has-blue-background-color has-background-dim-100 has-background-dim\"><\/span><div class=\"wp-block-cover__inner-container is-layout-constrained wp-block-cover-is-layout-constrained\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-buttons is-content-justification-center is-layout-flex wp-container-core-buttons-is-layout-16018d1d wp-block-buttons-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-button is-style-outline is-style-outline--1\"><a class=\"wp-block-button__link has-limegreen-color has-text-color has-link-color has-medium-font-size has-custom-font-size wp-element-button\" href=\"https:\/\/abl-group.com\/abl\/maritime\/ports-and-harbours-engineering-consultants\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">ABL Ports and Harbours <\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div><\/div>\n","protected":false},"author":20,"featured_media":126109,"template":"","sector":[833,836],"service":[1227],"company":[724],"class_list":["post-126167","case-study","type-case-study","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","sector-offshore-wind","sector-ports-harbours","service-navigational-risk-assessment","company-abl"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v23.6 (Yoast SEO v27.3) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Navigational Risk Assessment Case Studies - ABL<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/abl-group.com\/abl\/case-studies\/navigational-risk-assessment-case-studies\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_GB\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Navigational Risk Assessment Case Studies\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Challenge faced by the client ABL proposed to undertake a comprehensive feasibility and risk assessment study to evaluate the safe manoeuvring of Newcastle\u00a0max vessels at\u00a0a\u00a0terminal.\u00a0 Purpose of the NRA The terminal\u00a0wishes\u00a0to add Newcastle\u00a0max vessels to its port. 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